What Is The Steel Price Forecast For 2024?

Each year, Australian Steel Traders assesses the forecast for steel pricing across the country – and indeed, the world – to help our customers better make plans for their business in the upcoming months.

2023 has been an interesting year, with much of the current landscape depending on global conflicts but also the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, which is still being felt to this day. Here is what we may be able to expect when it comes to the steel price forecast 2024.

What’s Going On In The Current Landscape?

The current state of the steel market is a result of a staggering number of global events that have driven steel prices both up and down.

In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic swept the globe, and demand for steel more or less stopped. This was due to factories shutting down during lockdowns, construction projects being stalled, and prices nosediving, leaving the industry reeling. Then, in 2021, the global economy began to recover, and steel was in high demand. Supply chains, still suffering from the pandemic slowdown, struggled to keep up, sending prices skyrocketing like a rocket escaping gravity.

During 2022, supply chains finally caught up, but demand for steel had cooled off thanks to rising inflation and economic worries. This pushed prices lower. Following this was the Ukraine-Russia war. This geopolitical conflict caused panic buying and sent prices into a dizzying high.

Whilst steel supply chains have begun to stabilise since these events, it may very well be that oversupply occurs in 2024, potentially putting downward pressure on prices.

Steel Price Forecast 2024

Overall, there seems to be a neutral outlook when it comes to 2024 steel pricing. There may be fluctuations within a moderate range, similar to current levels – however, infrastructure spending, especially in developing economies, could provide some upward momentum. However, ongoing construction in China might already contribute to market saturation. It’s also suggested that fluctuations in energy prices and raw material costs will also play a role.

Australia’s metallurgical coal export earnings are also set to play a role. These earnings are predicted to fall from $62 billion in 2022-2023 to $41 billion by 2024-2025, with higher volumes offsetting prices.

What Does This Mean For You?

All in all, we would recommend preparing for volatility. While we have mentioned a neutral outlook, it is always best to be prepared for price fluctuations due to unforeseen events. To keep ahead, be sure to monitor market trends and expert analyses to make informed decisions about your steel purchases. Additionally, relationships with a trusted steel supplier can provide options and potentially better deals.

Remember, these are just predictions, and the actual steel price in 2024 can deviate from these forecasts. However, staying informed, being adaptable, and building strong relationships with your suppliers can help you navigate the uncertain landscape of the steel market and make informed decisions for your business.